Thursday, October 25, 2012

Comment on Bank of Canada report

The Bank of Canada came out with the 2 reports this week.  The first as I am sure you have heard is holding interest rates firm so there will be no impact on any variable rate loans people might have.  All good news for those trying to lower their debt load.  The news that came out with the report though, while as careful as ever, does indicate that Canada is doing fairly but global conditions are not looking to help raise the boat any time soon.

In summary, the US is not doing too badly with some forward momentum, Europe is still on the down slope and China and other emerging economies have slowed "somewhat" more than expected.  They also indicate that the rates of growth might be stabilizing, but the "somewhat" makes me think they may be being optimistic.  It is good news that our commodities are holding us up as prices have increased. 

I did like the call for our economy to be at full capacity by the end of 2013.  I also like the dichotomy of talking about our growth is related to consumption and the concern over household debt burden.  I heard a comment on CBC that summed this up well.  They want the people that can afford to build debt to spend and keep the economy going, sort of like the encouragement the US gave people before the collapse, but they also want those who cannot afford the debt to pay it down so we do not collapse.  Somewhere in there I guess there is a happy middle ground of debt where people keep the economy going but do not collapse the system.  This also assumes people are good judges of where that is.  All I can say is that I hope people are getting the advice they need to make good decisions.

The sad news is for our industry is that they expect housing activity to decline from historically high levels and a high dollar to continue. They also expect inflation to get back to the 2% target range by the end of 2013.  The rest of the piece says essentially that they would like to raise rates, but can't. 

So, assuming these very smart people have a handle on things we are not looking at any major mortgage rate changes for the next year or so.  There will be the small ups and downs we have come to see, but we will probably remain in historically low territory for the foreseeable future.   Great news for home buyers and people renegotiating their deals. 

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